Real Estate and the Presidential Election – Trends and Myths

By JESS BARRON, Lindsey’s Inc. Realtors

Well, the election is almost over. Like me, you are probably tired of all the texts, calls and advertisements. The election has an effect on all of us. But how much does the election really affect real estate?

Day to day, I am hearing several buyers and sellers saying that they will “wait until after the election” to make a real estate purchase or sell. Uncertainty of who will when the election and the effects it may have, are causing some potential buyers and sellers to sit on the sidelines and wait. I have seen the local market slow down tremendously recently, but is the election really to blame?

According to Case-Shiller, home prices, on average have climbed 4.84 percent in election years since 1987. In non-election years, values rose 4.44 percent. That might lead to the conclusion that presidential elections are good for the housing market, but the reality is far more nuanced.

“Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years,” says Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, a large listing service in the mid-Atlantic region. “It’s really about demographics and the economy.” (bankrate.com).

Some people may believe the election has a negative influence on real estate, but there is no data to show this. The seasonal cycle of real estate, busy spring and summer selling seasons followed by slower fall and winter seasons is normal and has more of an effect on the real estate market than an election. Interest and mortgage rates, which directly affect a buyer’s buying power, strongly affect real estate as do the supply of listings available to purchase. As of the week of October 21st, 2024, mortgage rates, which dipped down below six percent recently, are now pushing over seven percent again. This has caused many buyers to pull back and wait. Seasonal real estate cycles and mortgage rate increases are the two largest factors in a slowdown in my opinion.

Sometimes it is easy to blame things on the election cycle. While it does cause uncertainty and fear in some cases, the election has not had a significant influence on real estate. Now, if the newly elected President and their leadership begin to make significant economic changes when elected, we could see some substantial impact on real estate.

Jess Barron is an Associate Broker with Lindsey’s Inc. Realtors and former President of the Newnan-Coweta Board of Realtors.